Commodities Weekly Review
Saturday, 12 September 2026
COMMODITIES — WEEK IN REVIEW
Precious Metals
Gold (GC=F): -1.44%
Gold closed the week at $4,366.20/oz, giving back nearly 1.5% as surging oil prices pushed up Fed rate-hike bets and lifted the 10-Year Treasury yield to 4.97% (+19bp on the week). The move illustrates a familiar dynamic: rising energy-driven inflation expectations are, for now, working against gold rather than for it, as markets price in tighter policy rather than a flight to safety. Traders continued to note gold's underperformance relative to the escalating Middle East risk backdrop that might normally be expected to support the metal.
Silver (SI=F): -2.26%
Silver fell to $64.55, underperforming gold on the week. Kalshi's launch of gold and silver "perps" following CFTC approval drew attention as a new way to trade precious metals, though it was not cited as a driver of the week's price action. Like gold, silver moved against the tide of geopolitical tension, likely pressured by the same rising-rate backdrop.
Energy
Crude Oil (WTI): +9.37%
🚀 WTI crude surged 9.37% on the week to settle at $100.05 a barrel, its first close above $100 since May, as the Iran war escalated sharply. Saudi Arabia shut down its East-West pipeline — a key Hormuz bypass — after drone attacks reportedly launched by Houthi militants from Yemen, while the IEA cut its 2026 global oil supply outlook by 1.4 million bpd and now sees a Gulf supply recovery slipping to 2027. Supertanker rates reportedly hit $800,000 a day on the Baltic Exchange's Middle East-to-China route, and U.S. diesel prices hit a record above $6 per gallon, underscoring how tight the physical market has become even as oil pulled back from intraweek highes near $105 by Friday.
Natural Gas (NG=F): -4.84%
Natural gas fell 4.84% to $2.83, diverging notably from crude's sharp rally despite both being energy commodities exposed to the same Middle East headlines. The news feed did not point to a specific natural-gas-side catalyst for the decline; technical commentary noted the contract holding its 200-period moving average after a "double top failure," suggesting the move was more chart-driven than news-driven this week.
Industrial Metals
Copper (HG=F): -1.93%
Copper slipped to $6.47, a modest decline amid a broadly risk-off week for equities and a stronger dollar backdrop. No copper-specific catalyst was reported in the available news; the move looks consistent with the general pullback across risk-sensitive markets alongside rising Treasury yields.
Aluminum (ALI=F): -1.64%
Aluminum eased to $3,383.00. Separately, Glencore and Mercuria were reported to be pursuing an aluminum smelter deal in Venezuela, per Bloomberg — unconfirmed by the companies involved — as part of a broader wave of interest in Venezuelan energy and metals assets following recent U.S. dealmaking in the country. It was not clear from the data whether this reported deal had any bearing on the week's price move.
SUPPLY, DEMAND & INVENTORY THEMES OF THE WEEK
The dominant theme was the intensifying Iran war and its knock-on effects on Gulf energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia's shutdown of its East-West pipeline, Houthi advances toward a key Red Sea island near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reports of U.S. strikes on Iranian-linked tankers all fed a narrative of tightening physical supply, reinforced by the IEA's downgrade of 2026 global oil supply and record U.S. diesel prices above $6/gallon. Reported U.S. rig counts rose even as oil topped $100, and the White House was said to be weighing Defense Production Act measures to expand refining capacity with domestic refineries reportedly running near 98% of capacity. Against that backdrop, gold and silver's declines stood out as a divergence from the classic safe-haven playbook, appearing more closely tied to rising rate expectations than to geopolitical risk. Natural gas's drop despite the broader energy rally was not explained by any catalyst in the available data and is worth monitoring for confirmation of cause.
MACRO CONTEXT
U.S. equity indices fell across the board for the week (S&P 500 -0.80%, Dow -1.57%, Nasdaq 100 -0.59%), while the VIX jumped 9.02% and the 10-Year Treasury yield rose 19bp to 4.97%, consistent with a market repricing for a higher-for-longer rate path as August inflation data showed prices up 3.4% year-over-year, driven largely by energy costs. Oil's near-double-digit weekly surge sits at the center of that inflation dynamic, feeding directly into the Fed-hike-bet narrative that appeared to weigh on gold and silver even as broader risk assets sold off. Bitcoin's 3.14% weekly decline aligned with the same risk-off, higher-yield tone seen across equities.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
- 📅 Federal Reserve meeting: markets and commentators flagged this as the next major test for equities and rates following the recent inflation and yield moves.
- ⚠️ Iran war developments, including the status of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and any further Houthi action near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Strait of Hormuz.
- Further data on U.S. refining capacity utilization and any Defense Production Act action to expand output amid record diesel prices.
- Whether natural gas's decline extends or reverses, given the absence of a clear confirmed catalyst this week.
- Gold and silver's response if Fed rate-hike expectations shift following next week's meeting.
- The NYSE resumes normal trading Monday 14 September.
Commodities Weekly Review is AI-generated general market commentary for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell any security. Share and index prices are settled closes from the last completed market session, date-matched to the NYSE calendar. Any futures, extended-hours or crypto levels are live quotes at the time of writing. Nothing here is real-time.